In case you were wondering after my earlier political post just how big a difference the Bradley Effect could make in the electoral math on November 4th, let me spell it out for you.
Let’s be optimistic and assume that, because of the strong anti-Republican sentiment in the country, and the ongoing economic meltdown, that it blunts Obama’s results by five percent.
As of this morning, a reliable electoral-math site, electoral-vote.com, projects an Obama victory over McCain in the electoral college, 343 to 184, with 11 votes currently tied (in Missouri). Encouraging, right?
Now factor in the Bradley Effect. The following states flip from Obama to McCain:
Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, West Virginia, Missouri, Maine, New Mexico.
Post-effect electoral result? A McCain victory, 278 electoral votes to 260.
Still think McCain has no road to the White House? Think again. He’s playing the race-hatred card because it’s the one trick in his arsenal that might win him the election.
And I say again: Please let me be wrong.