Posts Tagged ‘election’

Franken is one step closer to Washington

According to a post by Joan Walsh at Salon.com, the Democratic National Committee has issued a news alert stating that the three-judge panel supervising the Minnesota senatorial election recount has declared Democratic candidate Al Franken the winner of the recount.

Norm Coleman and his legal counsel have vowed to carry their appeal to the Minnesota state supreme court, which must be filed within the next ten days. If the Minnesota state supreme court declines the appeal, that will be the ball game.

So, while Al Franken might not be taking his seat in D.C. just yet, he has inched that much closer to doing so by summer.

Fingers crossed.

Amusing Parallels

Over lunch this afternoon with glennhauman and gryphonrose, the subject turned (as it often does) to the topic of current politics.

It was noted that Senator Obama seems to be following much the same strategy against Senator McCain in the general election that he employed against Senator Clinton during the primaries. Put simply, Obama sits back — cool, calm, and unflappable — and lets his opponents self-destruct.

Then I thought about McCain’s self-applied moniker “maverick,” and his penchant for taking the stage to the song “Highway to the Danger Zone,” from the Top Gun soundtrack, and exiting to the theme from the movie Rocky. Obviously, McCain doesn’t realize that his symbolism is a mess here.

First of all, Senator McCain, you might want to remember how the original Rocky ended: The scrappy, temperamental white “underdog” got his ass beat in by the publicly lauded black man, lost the big decision, and ended up collapsing into the arms of a younger woman of dubious intellect and poor prospects who had stuck by him because … well, what else was she gonna do?

Second, don’t be too quick to invoke the Top Gun mystique, Mr. Would-Be Maverick. You might have forgotten how that movie ended, too: The feisty, hotheaded Navy pilot known as “Maverick” ended up losing in his bid to be “top gun.” And he didn’t just lose — he flamed out, crashed his plane, and killed his partner.

Who won? The cool, calm, unflappable “Iceman.” Remember the warning Goose gave Maverick? “They call him Iceman because that’s how he flies: perfect, no mistakes. He wears you down until you get bored and make a mistake, then BAM! He’s got you.”

Sound familiar yet, Senator McCain?

Twenty days to the end credits. Someone get the music cued up for Senator McCain’s exit, please….

The Bradley Effect

In case you were wondering after my earlier political post just how big a difference the Bradley Effect could make in the electoral math on November 4th, let me spell it out for you.

Let’s be optimistic and assume that, because of the strong anti-Republican sentiment in the country, and the ongoing economic meltdown, that it blunts Obama’s results by five percent.

As of this morning, a reliable electoral-math site, electoral-vote.com, projects an Obama victory over McCain in the electoral college, 343 to 184, with 11 votes currently tied (in Missouri). Encouraging, right?

Now factor in the Bradley Effect. The following states flip from Obama to McCain:

Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, West Virginia, Missouri, Maine, New Mexico.

Post-effect electoral result? A McCain victory, 278 electoral votes to 260.

Still think McCain has no road to the White House? Think again. He’s playing the race-hatred card because it’s the one trick in his arsenal that might win him the election.

And I say again: Please let me be wrong.

A prediction…

I’m going out on a limb here. I’ll try making a political prediction: Before the November 4 election, John McCain will replace Sarah Palin on his ticket.

It will probably happen just before or just after the VP debate on October 2.

Some excuse will be proffered, probably a variation on, “Governor Palin needs to spend more time with her special-needs infant.”

Rather than replace her with some well-known figure, McCain will choose another obscure female candidate.

Why? As Chris Matthews said on The Rachel Maddow Show, “razzle-dazzle.” Every time the poll numbers and the media narrative have turned against McCain, he has responded with a wild Hail Mary action to steal back the narrative.

Barack Obama’s acceptance speech electrifies the nation? Name Sarah Palin as VP.

The Palin novelty factor wears off and the economic crisis highlights McCain’s weaknesses? Faux “suspend” the campaign “for the national good.”

Now, as pundits and people seem to say that Obama was the winner of the first presidential debate, McCain’s numbers continue to erode in key battleground states, and the New York Times has just published an article detailing McCain’s troubling links to the gambling industry, it’s time for a new Hail Mary pass.

What would be big enough to change the media narrative again come Monday morning? Replacing his campaign manager with Rudy Giuliani? Maybe.

But if he doesn’t replace Palin before her Thursday debate with senate veteran Joe Biden, his campaign could be looking at a crippling gut-punch. What better way to forestall the pain than to have Palin recuse herself from the campaign on Wednesday, leaving no VP debate on the schedule?

Then all McCain has to do is pick another mystery Veep and let the media “run out the clock” for him, vetting this new cipher, giving him weeks of free air time, and all but shouldering Obama and Biden off the stage.

It would be erratic, insane, and unsettling. But in our ADD culture, it just might work.

I hope I’m wrong, and that McCain keeps this Alaskan Albatross around his neck, and that they lose.

But we’ll see.